Casino games are popular among people who like to gamble and test their luck. However, most people don't understand the concept of expected value, which is crucial for making informed decisions when playing casino games. In this article, we will explain what expected value is and how it applies to different casino games.
What is Expected Value?
Expected value (EV) is a mathematical concept that helps you understand the average amount of money you can expect to win or lose over time when playing a particular casino game. It is calculated by multiplying the probability of winning or losing by the amount of money you stand to win or lose.
For example, let's say you are playing a game of roulette where you bet on red or black. The probability of winning is 18/38 (or 47.37%) since there are 18 red numbers and 18 black numbers on the wheel, and two green numbers (0 and 00). If you bet $10 on red, your potential winnings are $10 (plus your original bet). Therefore, the expected value of your bet is:
(0.4737 * $10) - (0.5263 * $10) = -$0.53
This means that you can expect to lose $0.53 on average for every $10 you bet on red in the long run.
Expected Value in Different Casino Games
Blackjack
Blackjack is a popular casino game that requires skill and strategy. The goal is to beat the dealer by getting a hand that is closer to 21 without going over. The expected value of each hand depends on the player's strategy and the dealer's up-card.
For example, if the dealer's up-card is a 6 and the player has a hard 12 (total of two cards that do not include an ace), the expected value of hitting is -0.2537, while the expected value of standing is -0.3052. This means that hitting is a slightly better option in this scenario.
Roulette
Roulette is a game of chance where players bet on where a small ball will land on a spinning wheel. The expected value of each bet depends on the type of bet and the number of green spaces on the wheel (0 and/or 00).
For example, if you bet on a single number (straight up) and the wheel has 38 spaces (including 0 and 00), the expected value of your bet is -0.0526. This means that you can expect to lose $0.0526 on average for every $1 you bet on a single number in the long run.
Baccarat
Baccarat is a card game where players bet on the outcome of a hand between the player and the banker. The goal is to get a hand with a total value of 9 or as close to 9 as possible. The expected value of each bet depends on the type of bet and the number of decks used in the game.
For example, if you bet on the banker's hand and there are six decks in play, the expected value of your bet is -0.0101. This means that you can expect to lose $0.0101 on average for every $1 you bet on the banker's hand in the long run.
Why Expected Value Matters
Understanding expected value is important because it helps you make informed decisions when playing casino games. By calculating the expected value of different bets, you can determine which bets are more likely to result in a profit in the long run and which ones are more likely to result in a loss.
For example, if you are playing a game of roulette and you want to make a profit, you should avoid betting on single numbers since the expected value of those bets is negative. Instead, you should consider betting on even/odd or red/black, which have a higher probability of winning and a lower expected value of losses.
Conclusion
Expected value is a mathematical concept that helps you understand the average amount of money you can expect to win or lose over time when playing a casino game. By calculating the expected value of different bets, you can make informed decisions and increase your chances of making a profit. Remember, however, that expected value is based on probability and does not guarantee that you will win or lose a specific amount of money in a given session.
